North Korea threatens nuclear tests over U.N. move

[miles123]

I lived in Korea for many years and speak Korean fairly well. I have many Korean friends and talk about this often with them. There are many perspectives regarding how Koreans view the whole situation. I personally believe, if he could, he would try to take over the world, however, that is merely one man's opinion.

For the best idea of Kim Jeong Il's mind I would suggest the following book:

"Under the Loving Care of the Fatherly Leader" by Bradley K. Martin.

It is a monster read, but it should give you a very up-to-date idea of everything North Korean. Hell the Chief U.S. envoy carries this book around.

Personally, nuclear arms/atomic weapons aside, I think an actual army invasion would be horrible for the North. China, their main ally, doesn't want it. That is for sure. Additionally, South Koreans, are both technologically more advanced in regards to weaponry. With regards to physical size South Koreans (though still small by western standards) are much larger than North Koreans due to years of malnutrition, etc...

Their army (the north) isn't what it once was, though still formidable, and the South Korea army, in addition to about 25, 000 US troops, has a reserve of nearly 4 million. Military service is a requirement of 2 years for all males by the time they reach the age of 30 (American age 28-29)in South Korea. There are waivers for those with disabilities and a few other mitigating circumstances.

read the book, even if you don't give a damn about that side of the world, it is an interesting read.

Good discussion everybody!

 

[Member2019]

Personally, nuclear arms/atomic weapons aside, I think an actual army invasion would be horrible for the North. China, their main ally, doesn't want it. That is for sure. Additionally, South Koreans, are both technologically more advanced in regards to weaponry. With regards to physical size South Koreans (though still small by western standards) are much larger than North Koreans due to years of malnutrition, etc...

And yet, Seoul could still be flattened by North Korean artillery within minutes of a war breaking out. That's their major threat, not nukes. The South Korean economy would be obliterated, even if North Korea was not able to do anything else after that in a full-out war.

For the North Koreans, this is about strategic extortion. As long as they can, they will continue to do it. Every time their new demands are not met, they increase their actual, real engagements -- from abducting citizens to engagement South Korean and US forces. Now North Korea is taking selection portions of the 1953 cease fire and making them void, a first since 1999, and they're going beyond what they stated (and did!) in 1999.

Understand Japan finally had it by 2002 and sided completely with the US. Japan's leadership has been completely frustrated by the utter lack of appreciation for the US' real positions on North Korea, especially with regards to Japan. South Korean has apparently had enough as of 2007, seeing the policies of 2002-2006 fail (reversing its demonization of the US as being at fault 2002-2006, in 2007+ and now, especially with the Obama administration, 2009+). The Obama administration is steadfast on those same policies as W., as W. was of Clinton's 1999+ (including making good on the 1994 agreement, despite what the media says).

The Japanese continually push the US to stop the black market trade of North Korea, including its citizens and other issues. The US was pushed by South Korea to do the opposite, and appease them 2002-2006. The US can't serve all interest. Let alone many in the Taiwanese push the US regarding the 2007+ developments, citing that China has failed to live up to its agreements with the US regarding keeping regions free of nuclear weapons.

Sooner or later, people need to realize that no matter how friendly and considerate the Obama administration is towards nations -- from Iran to North Korea to Venezuela, the reality is that these nations have their agenda, they are not merely at odds with the US, but the allies of the US. Sorry, reality, I know a lot of leftists are on this board, but I warned repeatedly that it wasn't just W. Because even a more leftist administration is not enough.

I warned my fellow Americans they've always against not American interests, but American allies and their strategic and defense considerations. Welcome to reality my bleeding heart liberal friends.

 

[miles123]

I don't doubt you on the extortion front and the artillary is certainly a souring, dangerous, concept. However, I think that Kim is using extortion because he knows he cannot win an invasion. If he thought he could when an invasion, he would do it I'm sure.

On a side bar,....Two of the politically coolest things I got to do in my life was visit North Korea and to have dinner with a North Korean defector in Seoul. Worth the experience totally.

Good posts Prof....as always.

 

[Member2019]

However, I think that Kim is using extortion because he knows he cannot win an invasion. If he thought he could when an invasion, he would do it I'm sure.

There is a fine line between war and constant, regular military engagements.

So far, South Korea and the US reach a point of attrition with small units of North Korean army and naval and call it a day. It may not be acceptable to Japan, but so far, for the South Koreans and Americans, it has.

The question is at what point does North Korea, when it doesn't get what it wants, and three (3) of the six (6) parties (Japan, South Korea and US) stalwart in their demands, keeps it up. They threatened and made good on their threats in 1999 during the Clinton administration. They've used various excuses during the W. administration.

China left them in 2007, but still protected them. China is beyond pissed now.

On a side bar,....Two of the politically coolest things I got to do in my life was visit North Korea and to have dinner with a North Korean defector in Seoul. Worth the experience totally.

Even during the Cold War, most Americans tourists talked very fondly of their average, Soviet citizen hosts. And today, thanx to efforts of McCain and others in the early-to-mid '90s, the US has a good relationship with Vietnam now, including heavy American tourism.

The US is more than willing to forgive and forget, but even help rebuild. The problem is when a nation continues to be a thorn, especially when US policy -- until the Korean War -- was to always accept nothing less than unconditional surrender.

 

[miles123]

Prof. I like your posts, well informed as usual.

I have been to Vietnam (2 times), I currently live in Taiwan, my wife is Korean. I'm familiar with most of the political situations that you speak of yet, I personally believe that small "skirmishes" near the DMZ or anything else you want to discuss involving North Korea all the way back the the pueblo incident is just a form of extortion. I referenced the North Korean, not because he was a "nice guy" but because I got a first hand account of the mind set of North Korea which was nice. I didn't get this upon my visit to Kaesong as they treat you different when you are a foreigner (they do in Seoul too, but less). Additionally, I was at about 90% fluency on my trip to the North but the accent was soo much different I had a hard time understanding, let alone risking engaging in any discourse of that nature. It is much more dangerous for the North Koreans to talk to us then us to them. I dont' want someone getting sent to a prison camp because of a question I asked. My wife still has distant relatives in DPRK so I am sympathetic....

My whole point is that the mind set of the South Koreans and, in particular, the North Koreans is the most important thing. Taiwan, China, Japan, 6 party talks aside.... If the famine and hunger situation remains so abhorrent in the North, it is our best chance for regime change. Defections to the south have gone up tremendously since 1992 when the North stopped punishing family members of defectors. Granted, if there is change in the North, China certainly will not be happy as they risk losing control of naval compacity in main shipping yards between China and Korea. Not to mention the termoil a reunification would cause in the ROK for awhile. People in the North genuinely believe the USA invaded Korea and will do so again. We have to have conditions so bad in the North that they will all consider a change in power. "State of Mind" as they say.

Thanks for making me think Prof.

 

[Member2019]

Prof. I like your posts, well informed as usual.

I wouldn't say I'm the most informed. But as an American, with no travel outside of the Americas, I don't like to know only what I can get from typical media outlets. I like to not merely hit foreign outlets, but actual, raw transcripts (e.g., UN), various strategic studies (now these will be American biased) and, most importantly, as much non-American history and those viewpoints of those events as I can (so undervalued by so many -- people, far often, only read history they have either been fed, or are pre-disposed to agree with).

I have been to Vietnam (2 times), I currently live in Taiwan, my wife is Korean. I'm familiar with most of the political situations that you speak of yet, I personally believe that small "skirmishes" near the DMZ or anything else you want to discuss involving North Korea all the way back the the pueblo incident is just a form of extortion. I referenced the North Korean, not because he was a "nice guy" but because I got a first hand account of the mind set of North Korea which was nice.

North Korea's leadership is all about getting what they can. Unfortunately, they don't know when to quit. In the past, China has protected them. But in this latest incident, even beyond the 2007 incident, I think they are really not realizing where they are at.

And that will lead them to push it well beyond where it ever went last decade. Obama is not a pushover, despite what people think. If you make it a strategic issue for the US or, more importantly, it's allies, he will act (this is unlike Iraq, which was not).

I didn't get this upon my visit to Kaesong as they treat you different when you are a foreigner (they do in Seoul too, but less). Additionally, I was at about 90% fluency on my trip to the North but the accent was soo much different I had a hard time understanding, let alone risking engaging in any discourse of that nature. It is much more dangerous for the North Koreans to talk to us then us to them.

That's how it typically is.

I dont' want someone getting sent to a prison camp because of a question I asked. My wife still has distant relatives in DPRK so I am sympathetic....
My whole point is that the mind set of the South Koreans and, in particular, the North Koreans is the most important thing. Taiwan, China, Japan, 6 party talks aside....

That will always be the case. The other, "proxy" issues the US has are secondary. But they are still bargaining chips in the greater, strategic issues of the region.

If the famine and hunger situation remains so abhorrent in the North, it is our best chance for regime change. Defections to the south have gone up tremendously since 1992 when the North stopped punishing family members of defectors. Granted, if there is change in the North, China certainly will not be happy as they risk losing control of naval compacity in main shipping yards between China and Korea.

I honestly think the US and China could reach an agreement if it comes to that. I think the US could use various aspects of China's security as leverage, including guaranteeing various strategic capabilities will never be placed in Taiwan, reducing maritime flights and other intelligence operations in international waters/airspace, etc...

Not to mention the termoil a reunification would cause in the ROK for awhile.

As was the strain when the GDR was integrated during unification of Germany, and was not even remotely as poor of a situation.

People in the North genuinely believe the USA invaded Korea and will do so again.

Oh, I don't doubt. This is a continuing issue.

Even just recently, in the few years leading into the 2008 Olympic games, the US took great issues with the legacy, state-funded, anti-American propoganda that still goes on in China. The case is the same in Iran and other nations, which still have public, state sponsored displays taking issue with western civilization -- and I'm beyond just the "capitalist exploitation," but direct suggestions that western societies are sub-human.

Nations that use propoganda to demonize another nation only cause continued hatred in the world. I wish I still had a link to a great UN study that warns various nations of the damage they are causing themselves and future generations by state-sponsored propoganda that goes beyond just laying blame at the foot of another nation, but breeding intolerance of other cultures. The average American may have various, negative views of other nations, but even more women than not in the US understand and will tolerate the thought of nations where they are underprivileged (even if they don't like it).

McDonald's, on the other hand, is a great example of what others won't tolerate. Then again, I don't see McDonald's as highlighting American values, at least not the good ones.

I know Korea goes well beyond that.

The US found itself "indirectly invading" Korea in the mid 19th century, over a mere misunderstanding -- with the Americans being dumbfounded that their allegedly peaceful expedition that only wanted to open commerce. It was an entire shift in attitudes, with Americans assuming and failing to grasp that foreign relations were not wanted, much less would be allowed, and to push for such is an impressment of its own values and that was an affront to their way of life.

We have to have conditions so bad in the North that they will all consider a change in power. "State of Mind" as they say.
Thanks for making me think Prof.

I just sure wish people wouldn't believe this is about "ignoring" North Korea. It's not even about "ignoring" our allies. There are so many factors. And it doesn't have anything to do with W. anymore, any more than Clinton before him, etc... I think people will be surprised what Obama will do.

I have faith (and I don't mean that in a religious sense).

 

[Member2019]

Seems like North Korea has stopped the bi-lateral rhetoric and is now slamming the UN Security Council directly:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090529/ap_on_re_as/as_koreas_nuclear

I honestly don't know where they think they'll go with that. At least it does confirm the 6 party talks have done their job, and finally gotten them to be unable to blame solely the US for UN actions. That and, more likely, the nuclear tests, as not even China is defending them.

I could hear the PRC-DPRK insider chatter now (cartoonized):

DPRK: You permanent members of the Security Council are all hypocrites with your nukes and all!

PRC: Ummm, the two countries you continually threaten, Japan and South Korea, don't have nukes, and you're lucky they won't let the US place them there, because they're more than happy too. And even ignoring the issue you created for us with Taiwan -- thanx for that BTW -- we're not too thrilled with you having them next to us either, hence why we understand Japan and South Korea's viewpoints at this point! Stop! Please!

 

[miles123]

I hadn't visited this post in a while prof, cause I didn't think anyone had responded to my blathering. Thanks for taking the time to provide some input. Kudos.