I'll still bet he'll beat Obama, a freshman senator from Chicago who accomplished and ran nothing!
In any election, 40% of the electorate will automatically vote republican, no matter what. Likewise, 40% will vote democratic....period. It's the 20% swing vote in between that everyone fights for. If I'm typical of that segment (you can argue I'm not but that's hypothetical), no way does Rick Perry win. In the instance he is the republican nominee against Obama, I'm holding my nose and voting for Obama. I cannot in good conscience vote for someone who wants to cram Jesus down my throat and deny basic civil rights to other human beings simply because of their sexual preference.
On the other hand, given a more moderate choice, I'd gladly cast my vote for a republican nominee as a legitimate alternative to a president who, so far, has been all sizzle and no steak. Right now, Ron Paul is pretty much the only one running who might fit that description and I don't think he has much of a chance.
Unless something dramatic happens in the next year, looks like the republicans are gonna blow their opportunity by going with an extreme right-wing nominee who will crystallize their conservative base but alienate the swing voter who could possibly get them elected. :wtf: