Voting Underway in Iran

[D-rock]

I hope whatever happens the lives of the people of Iran become better, which it probably won't, but anybody that thinks Obama's speech had anything to do in influencing the voting in Iran is delusional.

 

[Hot Mega]

I hope whatever happens the lives of the people of Iran become better, which it probably won't, but anybody that thinks Obama's speech had anything to do in influencing the voting in Iran is delusional.

Pre Speech;

But analysts say Obama will be trying to win over Muslims in the Middle East, where he faces some of his biggest foreign policy challenges, from the Iraq war and the nuclear standoff with Iran to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
The U.S.-led invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, the treatment of prisoners at the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo and Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq, and the Bush administration's perceived bias in favor of Israel stoked anti-American sentiment in the region and fueled terrorism.

"The best he could hope to accomplish is move Arab public opinion about the United States and make it easier for their governments to work with (Washington). We need it for our general influence in the area," said Elliott Abrams, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who served in senior foreign policy positions under two Republican presidents.

The speech comes at a time when Obama is seeking to build an alliance of moderate Muslim nations to pressure Iran to stop uranium enrichment, which Washington fears is a cover to build atomic weapons but Tehran says is for peaceful purposes. He also needs their support for renewed U.S.-led efforts to seek a two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

Post Speech;

A very excited anchorwoman on Egypt TV told her guests and viewers that she counted 30 applause breaks during Obama's discourse.

She boasted as soon as the speech was over: "They were genuine cheers to a very good speech."

Her guests agreed that the speech was well-crafted, clear and "honest," especially on the relationship between the U.S. and Israel.

At one point, a man in audience shouted, "We love you" to Obama. The search is on to confirm the man's identity and to see which point got the hardest applause during the speech.

But perhaps the best reaction came from ordinary Arabs and Muslims plugged into their social media and expressing in real time how they feel about the message and its messenger.

On Twitter, Ali from Iran sent a few dozen tweets with updates, like, "Iranians are following Obama's speech on Voice of America which is illegal."

He also submitted comments from fellow Iranians who weren't very impressed by Obama's presentation.

One of them said, "We must be defiant till USA makes some practical change, not only words."

Still, the majority of the reaction was positive, with people discussing how energized they are by Obama's positive attitude and what Ali Dahmash from Jordan described as "understanding of what it means to be Muslim and appreciating that."

Dahmash's comments on the speech provided all sides, from admiration of Obama's democracy call to criticism of the lack of focus on Gaza's plight. "Never seen such an applause and respect to an American president ever" he wrote to his Twitter followers.

Minutes after Obama finished his historic speech, CNN correspondent Ben Wedeman's phone rang.

It was Walid Batouti, the owner of an Egyptian tour company and, normally, a skeptic of U.S. policy in the Middle East.

"Yes, we can!" he shouted, echoing the campaign slogan that brought Obama to power last year. "I've had my problems with the U.S. in the past, but it was a great speech, and we really appreciated it," he said.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/04/muslim.reaction/index.html

 

[sproing99]

Victory for the establishment:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/8098305.stm

 

[shayd]

How many of you believe that Iran has some kind of democracy? And if you don't believe so then what is the reason and what is the right path to bring democracy to that country?

It's pretty much turned out the exact way I thought it would. Ahmadinejad winning in a much contested manner, and people from the opposition questioning the results, and unfortunately, the opposition may have a point.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/04/muslim.reaction/index.html

Of course the people who actually showed up or watched the speech would have a pro-change point of view, they were almost exclusively part of the youth movement looking for change. The people in power weren't effected at all, and at this point, it looks like they were the ones who needed to be influenced most.

 

[Hot Mega]

It's pretty much turned out the exact way I thought it would. Ahmadinejad winning in a much contested manner, and people from the opposition questioning the results, and unfortunately, the opposition may have a point.



Of course the people who actually showed up or watched the speech would have a pro-change point of view, they were almost exclusively part of the youth movement looking for change. The people in power weren't effected at all, and at this point, it looks like they were the ones who needed to be influenced most.

Well, explain those who watched and were critical.

 

[shayd]

Well, explain those who watched and were critical.

I'm not sure what you're asking me. I'm saying the people who watched weren't critical at all, the people who have the power right now (as in people subscribing to the ideology of the party in power) were.

D-Rock was right, Obama had no influence on this election.

 

[Hot Mega]

I'm not sure what you're asking me. I'm saying the people who watched weren't critical at all, the people who have the power right now (as in people subscribing to the ideology of the party in power) were.

D-Rock was right, Obama had no influence on this election.

What I'm saying is there were people who watched his speech who were critical before and critical afterwards. In other words, there were people who were US/Obama skeptics who watched the speech in spite of that. You asserted that most if not all Muslim viewers were pro-Obama...that's simply not the case.

Even though my premise is Obama has had an overall positive impact on potential reform in Iran, Iran apparently not changing their leadership is not determinative as to the impact of Obama's speech on Iranians. It could have influenced people there to be more reformist or more entrenched in the status quo.

One thing that we do know is subsequent to Obama's speech Iranians got to witness and "unprecedented debate" in which the sitting president was challenged on ideas. That is progress IMO.

 

[deltaoscarbravo]

It looks like President Ahmadinejad has been re-elected.


I think that President holds some very interesting and worthwhile views.


I would like to see him engage Obama directly.

 

[shayd]

What I'm saying is there were people who watched his speech who were critical before and critical afterwards. In other words, there were people who were US/Obama skeptics who watched the speech in spite of that. You asserted that most if not all Muslim viewers were pro-Obama...that's simply not the case.

Even though my premise is Obama has had an overall positive impact on potential reform in Iran, Iran apparently not changing their leadership is not determinative as to the impact of Obama's speech on Iranians. It could have influenced people there to be more reformist or more entrenched in the status quo.

One thing that we do know is subsequent to Obama's speech Iranians got to witness and "unprecedented debate" in which the sitting president was challenged on ideas. That is progress IMO.

Iranians that were anti-US/Obama overwhelmingly paid no attention to what he had to say. I'm not trying to vilify the party, but it's in the nature of that party to ignore anything that can be construed as derogatory to them and instead saying whatever they want. I don't doubt that Obama had an influence on the opposition party, but that's the party that's probably going to be drowned out by the party in power right now.

 

[bodie54]

It looks like President Ahmadinejad has been re-elected.
I think that President holds some very interesting and worthwhile views.

Such as?

 

[D-rock]

To be a little fair to Hot Mega when I said Obama wouldn't have any influence I didn't exactly mean that the people in power would win a very controversial election that reeks of corruption no matter how the vote really turned out. (Although in hindsight that seems very true also, and in that sense Obama didn't have any influence over the election in that way either. I thought whoever won wouldn't really change Iran much even if they wanted to. For that to happen Iran has to become secular, and that probably isn't happening any time soon without conflict. Even I didn't think it would turn out this badly or controversial for them though.) I meant it in the sense that I think even for the liberal people in Iran that Obama’s speech wasn't nowhere near the determining factor in their decision. I doubt it was even the twentieth most influential thing on their list that made them vote the way they did and most of them would have voted the same way regardless. I don't see Obama's speech as some sort of tipping point in Iran or the Middle East. It was nice and it might have a marginal impact. Maybe with years of continued effort after the speech Obama might start making some progress in the relations with the people in the middle East, but many people in Iran already have more than enough reason to dislike Ahmadinejad and vote against him already.

I do get a sense that this might be one of the most critical times in Iran in a long time now. How the people react to what has happened, and how they press the issue will be very critical in determining their future. I hope the people in Iran that want to change don't just roll over, even if it could turn bloody against them. If they do it will set them back a long time. They are on a knifes edge in history that can go one way or the other.

 

[Hot Mega]

To be a little fair to Hot Mega when I said Obama wouldn't have any influence I didn't exactly mean that the people in power would win a very controversial election that reeks of corruption no matter how the vote really turned out. (Although in hindsight that seems very true also, and in that sense Obama didn't have any influence over the election in that way either. I thought whoever won wouldn't really change Iran much even if they wanted to. For that to happen Iran has to become secular, and that probably isn't happening any time soon without conflict. Even I didn't think it would turn out this badly or controversial for them though.) I meant it in the sense that I think even for the liberal people in Iran that Obama’s speech wasn't nowhere near the determining factor in their decision. I doubt it was even the twentieth most influential thing on their list that made them vote the way they did and most of them would have voted the same way regardless. I don't see Obama's speech as some sort of tipping point in Iran or the Middle East. It was nice and it might have a marginal impact. Maybe with years of continued effort after the speech Obama might start making some progress in the relations with the people in the middle East, but many people in Iran already have more than enough reason to dislike Ahmadinejad and vote against him already.

I do get a sense that this might be one of the most critical times in Iran in a long time now. How the people react to what has happened, and how they press the issue will be very critical in determining their future. I hope the people in Iran that want to change don't just roll over, even if it could turn bloody against them. If they do it will set them back a long time. They are on a knifes edge in history that can go one way or the other.

Words without deeds don't travel very far. That's why it was important for Obama to set the groundwork for the speech with deeds. That's why denouncing torture, closing GTMO, transistioning Iraq, bringing terror suspects to trial, etc. while apparently misunderstood and certainly mischaracterized by his opponents, were critical moves so he could have the moral platform from which to even deliver a credible speech.

Obama said during his campaign that he wanted to eliminate the kinds of bombing runs in which innocent civilians are killed en mass. If Obama takes over and those tragedies while difficult to avoid in some cases, continue happening what kind of credibility will Obama have? Those events do incalculable damage to our cause and provide currency to terrorist extremist. Obama showed how big of a priority it is to him that those not continue to merely be brushed off as accidents but that there is real accountability. That's why as unfortunate as it was, McKiernan was replaced almost immediately after that last incident in Afghanistan.

But again, it's words and deeds.

 

[Hot Mega]

It remains to be seen how far this will go but it most certainly is the most significant reformist movement since '78 IMO.

Some here have brushed aside these events as more of the same but the scale of opposition in size, scope and plurality are making it tough to maintain that position IMO.

In Iran, One Woman's Death May Have Many Consequences

AFP/YouTube – A screen grab taken from a video posted on YouTube, allegedly shows Iranian men trying to help a wounded …

By ROBIN WRIGHT – Mon Jun 22, 12:30 am ET
Iran's revolution has now run through a full cycle. A gruesomely captivating video of a young woman - laid out on a Tehran street after apparently being shot, blood pouring from her mouth and then across her face - swept Twitter, Facebook and other websites this weekend. The woman rapidly became a symbol of Iran's escalating crisis, from a political confrontation to far more ominous physical clashes. Some sites refer to her as "Neda," Farsi for the voice or the call. Tributes that incorporate startlingly upclose footage of her dying have started to spring up on YouTube.

Although it is not yet clear who shot "Neda" (a soldier? pro-government militant? an accidental misfiring?), her death may have changed everything. For the cycles of mourning in Shiite Islam actually provide a schedule for political combat - a way to generate or revive momentum. Shiite Muslims mourn their dead on the third, seventh and 40th days after a death, and these commemorations are a pivotal part of Iran's rich history. During the revolution, the pattern of confrontations between the shah's security forces and the revolutionaries often played out in 40-day cycles.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/08599190604900

 

[Gordar]

I don't know how trustworthy the Chicago Tribune is, but I've heard the same story on the local news yesterday...

It seems the Ayatollahs are splintering

http://www.chicagotribune.com/topic/ktla-iran-protests,0,379501.story

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/iran/story/70155.html