President Donald Trump's Legacy

[Luxman]

‘Trump Knows What He’s Doing’: The Creator of Godwin’s Law Says the Hitler Comparison Is Apt - Dec 19, 2023
The internet legend explains why the Biden campaign isn’t wrong to compare Trump to Hitler.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/12/19/godwins-law-trump-hitler-00132427

 

[Supafly]

Then there is the upcoming sentences in those legal suits. We know he has a lot of devoted followers, but I am pretty sure a convicted felon, who has good chances of being in prison soon, will not get enough votes.

And, as much as the Party he runs for is transformed into a cult, they hang on their donors, and donors do not invest into inmates.

I think he is on his last legs, and will either drop out or get dropped out

 

[tvstrip]

Then there is the upcoming sentences in those legal suits. We know he has a lot of devoted followers, but I am pretty sure a convicted felon, who has good chances of being in prison soon, will not get enough votes.

And, as much as the Party he runs for is transformed into a cult, they hang on their donors, and donors do not invest into inmates.

I think he is on his last legs, and will either drop out or get dropped out

Do you think those sentences will come before the election? Or that an injunction won't be granted until at least the GOP nominee is decided?

 

[Supafly]

I think that now comes a severe test of the US democracy, and that enough of those who eroded it, making the system work in favor of criminal and corrupt members of those in power, will realize that they need to drop somebody that pushed things too far. And, yes, I do believe that one is Donald J. Trump, and he will fall VERY hard, and it will be hard, too, for the Republicans, where most sold their soul to him, and who have to find a way out of this mess, because nobody will want to go down into the deep hole with him.

We will see many of them turn on him. The GOP will never be like it used to be, or at least for a long time.

 

[gmase]

I think he is on his last legs, and will either drop out or get dropped out

Pronouncements of Trump's demise are premature. He has a legitimate shot at winning this November.

Someone told me that the other day. I said "I stopped believing that a long time ago." Until I see it really happen, I believe he is here to stay. The legal issues do not seem to have much of an impact to the Republican base. If seems to make him more popular there. In the general election, it will come down to how the economy is doing in October/November.

Trump showing his genuine concern for his voters:
https://thehill.com/business/4401101-trump-biden-economy-recession-inflation/
“And when there’s a crash — I hope it’s going to be during this next 12 months because I don’t want to be Herbert Hoover,” Trump said in the interview that aired Monday night. “The one president I just don’t want to be, Herbert Hoover.”

 

[gmase]

Correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't this mean that even if he is banned from every single primary, it might not even matter?:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nevada-2024-republican-primary-ballot-trump/

All it takes is for enough states to opt for the GOP-sanctioned caucus, and he could get the nom, right?
And despite all these court decisions, I don't see anything about him being banned from the actual presidential election should he get the nom.

Again, please correct me if I'm wrong.

This is uncharted territory. The Supreme Court will rule at some point on the matter. If SCOTUS states that Trump did engage in insurrection and they concur that the President is subject to the 14th Amendment, then he would be banned from the November ballot.

As for the primaries, Nevada is in an odd position. Most, if not all, of the other states have their processes down.

 

[tvstrip]

This is uncharted territory. The Supreme Court will rule at some point on the matter. If SCOTUS states that Trump did engage in insurrection and they concur that the President is subject to the 14th Amendment, then he would be banned from the November ballot.

As for the primaries, Nevada is in an odd position. Most, if not all, of the other states have their processes down.

Exactly. None the stuff going on, as least so far, has resulted from him being banned from the November ballot. None of the stuff will ban him from even getting the GOP nomination. As much as sanely-minded people would like to think he shouldn't even be on the ballot, polling (inexplicably) shows it's quite possible he will get the nom. And if the economy (among other things) for the US are in the shitter, and the Dems keep joe as their candidate, it's becoming less clear who would win.

The worst part is that, at least from what I see, is that the majority of US voters would rather see anyone but these two run.

 

[gmase]

Exactly. None the stuff going on, as least so far, has resulted from him being banned from the November ballot. None of the stuff will ban him from even getting the GOP nomination. As much as sanely-minded people would like to think he shouldn't even be on the ballot, polling (inexplicably) shows it's quite possible he will get the nom. And if the economy (among other things) for the US are in the shitter, and the Dems keep joe as their candidate, it's becoming less clear who would win.

It will likely boil down to how the economy is performing, Right now the stock market is at an all-time high, inflation is under control, interest rates are falling, and unemployment is low. Those indicators are not favorable for Trump, since independent voters will skew toward Biden absent poor economic conditions. Biden will being to promote his accomplishments (i.e., infrastructure, inflation control, jobs, etc.) unlike Republicans who openly admit "We have nothing to campaign on. It’s embarrassing." Well, they will take credit for to the benefits in their district from programs they opposed.

The worst part is that, at least from what I see, is that the majority of US voters would rather see anyone but these two run.

You would be right there. Here is some polling.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politi...iden-trump-rematch-in-2024-ap-norc-poll-shows

 

[tvstrip]

unlike Republicans who openly admit "We have nothing to campaign on. It’s embarrassing." Well, they will take credit for to the benefits in their district from programs they opposed.

Which brings up a good question: What are the contentious issues which would divide voters?
Foreign policy-wise, both still seem to be in synch with Gaza/Ukraine.
Immigration: while not "get Mexico to pay for the wall", dems got a hard reality check and are closer to the GOP position than in the last election.
Economy - You have to educate me there. I really don't know how the two parties are really different at this point. The closest thing I can think of would be Roe v Wade, but that's not exactly presidential policy.

Although part of the reason is tump - he doesn't really have any discernable policies to begin with that I'm aware of. At least the first time he had tangible (if insane) policies like the "Muslim ban", etc.

 

[tvstrip]

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-r...d-jobs-or-anything-else-after-leaving-office/

In case you are wondering, there is only 1 former president who has ever come back after being defeated for reelection to win a second nonconsecutive term. 3 others have tried and failed.

 

[Luxman]

The Ruin That a Trump Presidency Would Mean - Jan 14, 2024
As GOP leaders get in line, the outlook for democracy looks grim—in Ukraine, and even in America.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/01/donald-trump-republican-nomination-ukraine/677144/

The article discusses how the Republican Party is fully aware of what they are signing up for by supporting Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential race. Unlike in 2016, when there was uncertainty about Trump's presidency, now Republicans know exactly what they are getting with him. The article highlights that many top Republicans have been hoping for an alternative to Trump, but their attempts have been unsuccessful. The legal processes against Trump have been too slow to rescue the party from him, and the Republican contest will likely be over soon.

The article also raises concerns about the potential consequences of Trump's renomination for American allies, the United States' standing in the world, and Ukraine's democracy. It mentions that House Republicans have already blocked emergency aid to Ukraine, Israel, and border enforcement. While the Republican Party in the Senate has tried to distance itself from Trump's foreign policy, the impending renomination indicates that pro-democracy Republicans are losing the argument within their own party.

The article further discusses how some Republican senators, such as James Risch, who have been supportive of Ukraine, have now endorsed Trump for the GOP presidential nomination. It highlights the lack of illusions among Republicans and the fact that those who go against Trump risk their careers. The article concludes by stating that after the Iowa caucus, Trump is likely to be renominated, making him the first three-time nominee since Richard Nixon. The true center of the story will then shift to the question of what kind of people Americans are, as Trump seeks to rehabilitate and ratify his attempt to overturn the 2020 election and justifies his refusal to leave office if defeated in 2024.

~ AI summary of article

 

[tvstrip]

I'd like to get your thoughts on a doomsday scenario: that he somehow wins the election.

What do you think would happen? I know people are saying "we know what we are getting into this time", but do we?
He might have had some semi-capable people in his cabinet at the start of 2016, but now everyone knows that's not a long term position, and that no one, even the VP is comfortable working for him. So he's not likely to be able to find particularly good people to work for him - and if you don't have that, you're not going to be able to enact any wild policies effectively. For example, if he had crappy legal counsel (e.g. Rudy), SCOTUS could strike down legislation he tries to pass.

The Nazis were only successful because they were competent and good at what they did. If you don't have that, he won't have any more success than a 3rd world dictator.
At least, that's my take.

 

[tvstrip]

Surely, he will push his legal team to appeal u to te Supreme Court... yet, I think therein lies a danger, too. If the country's top court does state that the ruling of a single state's decision is correct, more states will likely follow suit. And if a candidate can't run in, let's say, five or ten of fifty states, he is out of chances to win.

He is, so to say, FIRED

Trump fends off Haley with double-digit win and other takeaways from New Hampshire
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...ther-takeaways-from-new-hampshire/ar-BB1ha9ez

Care to comment?

He'll enter Nevada's caucuses in early February with a huge lead with voters there, per polling, and Haley isn't even competing in them. South Carolina will hold its primary on Feb. 24 -- and even though it's Haley's home state, Trump currently leads by about 36 points in 538's polling average.

Assuming it gets that far, I'd say the SC primary is going to be do or die for Haley.

 

[Supafly]

Sure. He is pushing his political campaign as his only hope to stay out of prison.

Holding the party hostage in the process, but at least, first voices are heard that disagree with him. He will be sent to serve time, but not again in office.

 

[John_8581]

Hey someone hit the Lotto yesterday. She goes by the name of E. Jean Carroll.

Donald Trump has to pay $83.3 million to E. Jean Carroll in the second defamation case. This one when he was President. A unanimous jury verdict. He will be appealing it. He's also appealing the $5 million award in that earlier trial. That earlier case covered his time after the Presidency. Also a unanimous jury verdict. And with his awesome legal team team led by Alina Habba ... He ain't winning. Simple as that.

The Orange Arsehole loses once again in Court. He's like 2-58 in decisions made against him. What an amazing legal team he's got working for him. With more cases to go ...

 

[Luxman]

Six fingers, the mark of the beast.

 

[John_8581]

No Presidential Immunity!! ... He can be prosecuted in these lawsuits said the D.C. Court of Appeals.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68026175

Former President Donald Trump and his attorneys are expected to appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.

 

[tvstrip]

Former President Donald Trump and his attorneys are expected to appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.

While it's a absurd case, if leave is granted to SCOTUS, it's unclear what could happen:

The case could ultimately go to the Supreme Court, where conservatives hold a 6-3 majority.

 

[tvstrip]

Former President Donald Trump and his attorneys are expected to appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.

Why the Supreme Court Will Likely Rule That Trump Has Immunity | Opinion
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opin...nity-opinion/ar-BB1hZTwa?ocid=nl_article_link

Interesting read, and pretty short & easy to understand.

The D.C. Circuit opinion is almost impossible to square with the Supreme Court's decision on presidential immunity from civil lawsuits based on official acts, Nixon v. Fitzgerald. That case granted former presidents absolute immunity from civil lawsuits for acts within the "outer perimeter" of their duties of office.
The D.C. Circuit didn't hold that the former President's alleged criminal acts were beyond that "outer perimeter." They held that there is no such immunity from criminal prosecution, period.

I think this is key. The DC circuit should have clarified whether the acts he's being charged with fall within the "outer perimeter". The Obama example makes sense why there is some immunity for at least SOME official acts. Without that distinction, the decision becomes too broad, and a way for SCOTUS to overrule it.

 

[John_8581]

Legal experts across the country including Ty Cobb, Former White Counsel under President Trump and Neal Katyal, the former US Solicitor General have weighed in on this.

The U.S Supreme Court, if they take the case, is going to affirm the U.S. Court of Appeals ruling. Trump is going to lose.